Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday/Tuesday, May 6/7, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY): INDIANA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their moneyline plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, DENVER, BOSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following system shows some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the “super” majority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): BOSTON
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an ROI of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% ROI Both of these ROIs are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): DENVER ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle money line wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE): NEW YORK ML, DENVER ML, BOSTON ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an ROI of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): CLE-BOS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: IND-NYK, MIN-DEN, DAL-OKC
PLAY UNDER in: CLE-BO
Second-Round Playoff Series NBA Betting Trends
As I reasoned in the first-round article from a few weeks back, being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis. Accurately projecting which underdogs will push a series deep, or alternatively which favorites will end a series quickly can boost your wagering profit in this round and all others. Take a look at some of these series trends based on won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season.• There have been 14 second-round series over the last 10 playoff seasons to last five games or less with only two in upset fashion. In all but one of those 20 series’ the winning team won at least 50 games in the regular season.
• There have been 19 second-round series over the last 10 playoff seasons that involved teams squaring off whose regular season win totals were within five of one another. Those series have been almost toss-ups, with the higher-seeded team winning 10 times (64 individual wins) and the lower-seed winning 8 times (53 individual wins).
• In the 21 other series where the regular season won-lost total is +6 or higher for the better seed, that team is 16-5 in series wins and 73-43 in individual wins. The most recent of those five series losses occurred in 2022, when Dallas edged Phoenix 4-3.
• Excluding the results of the 2020 season which had a shortened regular season and postseason played entirely in Orlando, 53 regular season wins is a good benchmark for projecting success in the second round. Teams that won 52 games or fewer, when taking on teams that won 53 games or more, are just 2-16 in series and 33-67 in individual games since 2014. Again, Phoenix in 2022 was the last team to lose in this situation.
• There is advantage to playing shorter series’ in the first round. Teams that played two or more fewer games in the first round boast a second-round series record of 8-5 since 2014, with an individual game mark of 38-26.
• It hasn’t been a real detriment to see a first-round series be pushed to seven games for teams in the second round. These teams are 8-8 in series’ and 47-46 in individual games since 2014. Heading into this season, only two first-round series over the previous three playoff seasons went the distance.
• Don’t overestimate situations when the worse-seeded team had a better second-half regular season record since they have only one once in their last eight series, going 16-31 in individual games.
• Similarly, worse-seeded teams that had better ATS records in the regular season haven’t fared that well either. They are just 3-13 in series record and 31-56 in individual games.
Scoring Trends
– It was in the 2016-17 season in which scoring really started to balloon in the NBA. Since then, it’s been proven to be that 112 points is the benchmark for second-round success – Teams that score 112 points or more in a second-round playoff game have gone 102-24 SU and 97-28-1 ATS (77.6%).– Lack of success accompanies failing to reach the 103-point mark – Second-round playoff teams scoring 102 points or less own a record of just 21-100 SU & 26-94-1 ATS (21.7%) over the last seven seasons.
Trends by Line/Total Range
– Laying big points with home teams has not worked out well for bettors in the second round recently, as hosts laying 8.5 points or more have gone 10-5 SU but just 2-13 ATS (13.3%) since 2016. This is in direct contrast to the first-round numbers we saw a couple of weeks ago. All other home favorites are 61-38-1 ATS (61.6%) in that span.System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-11 vs CLE)
Last Game Trends
– Teams coming off a loss in a second-round series game and playing at home have bounced back well, 19-8 ATS (70.4%) since 2021.System Match: PLAY DENVER (-5.5 vs MIN)
– There is a very interesting totals trend that has developed lately in competitive contests, as when games have been decided by 10 points or fewer, the follow-up second round same series game is 28-15-1 Under (65.1%) the total in the last 48.
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in MIN-DEN (o/u at 206.5)
Trends by Game Number
– Home teams have held the edge in Game Ones of the second round series’ since 2016, going 18-11 SU and 16-12-1 ATS (57.1%). However, they were 1-3 SU and ATS in 2023. There have only been two road favorites during that span.System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-6 vs IND), PLAY BOSTON (-11 vs CLE), PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-3.5 vs DAL)
– Seventeen of the last 29 (58.6%) non-neutral Game Ones of the second-round NBA playoffs have gone Over the total.
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in: IND-NYK, CLE-BOS, DAL-OKC
– The best Game One favorites have been the biggest favorites, as those laying 6 points or more are on a 16-6 SU and 14-8 ATS (63.6%) surge.
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-6 vs IND), PLAY BOSTON (-11 vs CLE)
– Upsets occur in Game One with lines of -5.5 or less – favorites of 5.5 points or less are on a 7-19 SU and 4-21-1 ATS (16%) skid.
System Match: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-3.5 vs DAL)
– Home teams have swept the last three years of Game 2 second-round action, going 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS (91.7%).
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-5.5 vs MIN)
– Smaller home favorites get it done in Game Two – Home favorites of 7 points or less have gone 18-2 SU and 16-4 ATS (80%) in their last 20 chances.
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-5.5 vs MIN)
Trends by Seed Number
– After a long run of dominance prior, #1 seeds are just 44-33 SU and 38-38-1 ATS (50%) in their last 77 second-round playoff games.– #1 seeds are on a 9-1 SU and ATS (90%) at home in the last two seasons in the second round, slowing a trend that saw them go just 9-8 SU and 5-11-1 ATS (31.3%) prior.
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-11 vs CLE), PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-3.5 vs DAL)
– #3 seeds have meant Unders in second-round games of late, 32-16-1 (66.7%) in the last 49.
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in MIN-DEN (o/u at 206.5)
– Teams seeded at #3 in the NBA playoffs have been awful on the road in the second round of late, winning just 11 of their last 36 games while going 12-24 ATS (33.3%).
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (+5.5 at DEN)
– Teams seeded #4 tend to be overmatched in the underdog role, owning a record of 10-31 SU and 13-27-1 ATS (32.5%) as such since 2015.
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+11 at BOS)
– Upset winners of the first round don’t win much in the second round, with teams seeded #5 or worse going 14-30 SU and 21-23 ATS (47.7%) in their second-round games over the last nine seasons when not matched up against another upset winner.
System Match: FADE INDIANA (+6 at NYK), FADE DALLAS (+3.5 at OKC)
– First-round upset winners are also brutal as large underdogs, as teams seeded 5th or lower have gone 3-31 SU and 13-21 ATS (38.2%) when playing as dogs of 6 points or more. Included in that is a 0-7 SU and ATS record at home.
System Match: FADE INDIANA (+6 at NYK)
Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season
NEW YORK has gone 11-6 Under the total (64.7%) at home this season when returning from a road trip in their prior game.5/6 vs Indiana
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 217.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 124-37 SU & 103-58 ATS (64%) run.
System Matches: PLAY DENVER (-5.5 vs MIN), PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (*if they fall into this line range, -3.5 currently*)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 83-69 (54.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 158-131 (54.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 221-152 (59.2%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CLE-BOS (o/u at 209)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 90-51 SU & 85-54-2 ATS (61.2%) in that follow-up try over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-5.5 vs MIN)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 264-212 (55.5%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in CLE-BOS (o/u at 209)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 115-83 SU and 113-82-3 ATS (57.9%) since ‘21.
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+11 at BOS)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 192-238 ATS (44.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU & 58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
System Matches: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-3.5 vs DAL)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 42-61 ATS (40.8%) in the next game, including 19-33 ATS (36.5%) on the road over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-3.5 vs DAL)
This Weekend’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).Monday and Tuesday’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +5.5 (+2.2), 2. INDIANA +6 (+0.9), 3. CLEVELAND +11.5 (+0.8)
Monday and Tuesday’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -3.5 (+2.6)
Monday and Tuesday’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +5.5 (+3.0), 2. CLEVELAND +11.5 (+1.5), 3. INDIANA +6 (+0.4)
Monday and Tuesday’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -3.5 (+0.5)
Monday and Tuesday’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-DEN OVER 206.5 (+0.8)
Monday and Tuesday’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-NYK UNDER 217.5 (-0.8), 2. CLE-BOS UNDER 209 (-0.6), 3. DAL-OKC UNDER 217 (-0.5)
Monday and Tuesday’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +11.5 (+2.7), 2. MINNESOTA +5.5 (+1.9), 3. INDIANA +6 (+0.7)
Monday and Tuesday’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -3.5 (+2.6)
Monday and Tuesday’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-BOS OVER 209 (+1.8), 2(tie). IND-NYK OVER 217.5 (+1.5) and MIN-DEN OVER 206.5 (+1.5)
Monday and Tuesday’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-OKC UNDER 217 (-2.3)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:Monday, May 6, 2024
(573) MINNESOTA at (574) DENVER* MINNESOTA has won six of the last seven ATS in the series
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
(555) INDIANA at (556) NEW YORK
* Favorites have covered 11 of the last 12 ATS in the series
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
(557) DALLAS at (558) OKLAHOMA CITY* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(559) CLEVELAND at (560) BOSTON
* Underdogs are 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven of the series
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS
